Centre for Offshore Foundation Systems

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Contact

Fuming Yang

Phone: (+61 4) 5222 1026


Start date

Feb 2016

Submission date

Feb 2019

Fuming Yang

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Thesis

Application of Bayesian techniques to risk assessment of the installation of mobile jack-ups

Summary

Mobile jack-up platforms remain a key contributor to the development of offshore oil and gas reservoirs through their ability to self-installation. The installation process is complex with various uncertainties. It is critical to make prediction of the occurrence of failure incidents by taking into account uncertainties probabilistically.

The aim of this PhD thesis is extending the existing deterministic approaches into the probabilistic and risk assessment frameworks. Firstly, a theoretical framework based on Bayes’ Theorem will be developed to update the probabilistic forecast with monitored data during the installation. Besides, quantitative risk assessment models will be developed as well for the probabilistic prediction of punch-through occurrence. Finally, an investigation of Kriging methods will be undertaken that if the method will allow installation record from one area of the site to be extrapolated elsewhere, thus providing quantitative confidence in latter installation based on earlier installed data.

Why my research is important

The conventional deterministic models founded in correct science and realistic failure mechanisms cannot provide all the information required by engineers. They give no guidance on the confidence the engineer should place in his prediction or on what decisions should be made if a jack-up installation diverges from the priori prediction.

The probabilistic approaches by taking into account uncertainties and updating a priori prediction with monitored data, leads to an extremely powerful tool to enhance the safety of jack-up installation. Furthermore, as complements to the deterministic models, the probabilistic models developed can be used to provide an advanced basis for guiding decisions on what course of action should be taken during offshore jack-ups installation.

Therefore, this new risk analysis method for predicting the installation of jack-up platforms suggests a path forward for the mobile jack-ups installation during renewable energy construction.

Funding

  • University Postgraduate Award (UPA);
  • F.S. Shaw Memorial Postgraduate Scholarship
  • Lloyd’s Register Foundation